Central Banks: The “Rates Shock” Continues In a move that has caught many off-guard, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released minutes today (February 17) from its recent meeting, signaling that interest rates—now at 3.85%—may need to climb as high as 4.45% by 2028 to curb stubborn inflation. The Broker Take: Mortgage brokers and commercial lenders should prepare for a “higher-for-longer” environment. While initial hopes for 2026 were for a cooling period, the focus has shifted back to debt serviceability and conservative financial planning for small business clients.

The “Great Rotation”: Tech Cools, Commodities Flame Up A major theme this week is the visible rotation of capital away from the “Magnificent Seven” AI tech giants toward traditional sectors like mining, utilities, and financials. Gold at Record Highs: Gold has become the standout performer of 2026, with analysts upgrading year-end targets to $5,600/oz amid global geopolitical volatility. Earnings Winners: BHP reported a massive 28% profit jump this morning, driven by copper demand and the global energy transition. Meanwhile, major banks are seeing strong trading revenue due to high market volatility.

AI’s Second Wave: From “Chips” to “Vibe Coding” The AI conversation is moving past hardware (Nvidia/TSMC) and into how companies are actually deploying it. Research vs. Trading: In the brokerage world, AI is currently disrupting market research rather than actual trade execution. New tools are allowing analysts to scrape “Web 3.0” data and private market insights in seconds. “Vibe Coding” Pressure: Traditional software firms (like Salesforce and Adobe) are facing pressure as “vibe coding”—AI tools that allow businesses to build their own internal apps without a dev team—becomes mainstream.

Geopolitical Wildcards & The Fed Globally, all eyes are on the Trump-Powell feud in the US. With a Department of Justice investigation into the Fed Chair and the recent nomination of Kevin Warsh to succeed him, investors are pricing in a potential shift in how the world’s most powerful central bank operates. Why it matters: This uncertainty is driving the Australian Dollar (AUD) higher (targeting $0.73 USD) and making international trade hedging a top priority for business brokers.